Hurricanes could become more prevalent with climate change, but the economic pain they deliver might not be recognized as man-made for 260 years.
That means smashed homes and ruined roads may not be attributable to greenhouse gases for centuries, according to new research that suggests climate policies like adaptation should be designed without financial evidence of climate-enhanced windstorms.
Finding the Fingerprints of Climate Change in Storm Damage -- a Very Long Detective Story
The study is here
Recent reviews have concluded that efforts to date have yet to detect or attribute an
anthropogenic climate change influence on Atlantic tropical cyclone (of at least
tropical storm strength) behaviour and concomitant damage. However, identification
of such influence cannot be ruled out in the future. Using projections of future tropical
cyclone activity from a recent prominent study we estimate the time it would take for
anthropogenic signals to emerge in a time series of normalized US tropical cyclone
losses. Depending on the global climate model(s) underpinning the projection,
emergence time scales range between 120 and 550 years, reflecting a large
uncertainty. It takes 260 years for an 18-model ensemble-based signal to emerge.
Consequently, under the projections examined here, the detection or attribution of an
anthropogenic signal in tropical cyclone loss data is extremely unlikely to occur over
periods of several decades (and even longer). This caution extends more generally to
global weather-related natural disaster losses.
OK guys, let's not worry about those broken records in heat, drought, flood etc. They don't mean a thing.
And that 5 degree C uptick expected (with BAU) in the next 60 to 90 years? That's not going to have any measurable effect on tropical cyclones that can be attributed to AGW.
And forget the insurance companies reporting record payouts due to climate related disasters.