In a similar way, the Energy Outlook, which contains our projections of future energy trends, has been used only internally so far. However, we feel it is part of our responsibility as a company to make important information and analysis available for public debate – all the more so if the issue at hand is as vital to all of us as is energy, its relation to economic development on one side, and to climate change on the other.BP Energy Outlook 2030
The three fossil fuels are converging on market shares of 26-27%, and the major non-fossil fuel groups on market shares of around 7% each.
Taken together, the contribution of all non-fossil fuels to growth over the next twenty years (36%) is, for the first time, larger than that of any single fossil fuel.
Renewables (including biofuels) account for 18% of the growth in energy to 2030. The rate at which renewables penetrate the global energy market is similar to the emergence of nuclear power in the 1970s and 1980s.
- Strong growth in non-OECD energy consumption, especially of coal, translates into continued growth of global CO2 emissions. The growth of global CO2 emissions from energy averages 1.2% p.a over the next twenty years (compared to 1.9% p.a. 1990-2010), leaving emissions in 2030 27% higher than today.
- The implementation of carbon abatement policies in the OECD reduces the level of emissions in 2030, but only by 10% relative to current levels.
- Non-OECD emissions grow by 2.2% p.a. on average, up 53% by 2030. Policies in non-OECD countries focus on reducing the carbon intensity of economic growth. Carbon per unit of GDP falls by 42% by 2030, and the rate of decline accelerates steadily. By 2020-30, non- OECD emissions are growing by only 1.3% p.a., compared to 5.2% p.a. growth over 2000-2010.
- Overall, this implies some progress towards climate change goals, but not enough to put the world on a path to stabilisation at 450 ppm.