The Uncertainty of our Future

of how much warming is likely between 1990, the baseline year for most IPCC work, and 2100.
The current AR4 report says it will be between 1.8 and 4.0 degrees Celsius (3 to 7 degrees F). But the betting is now that the range offered next time will be wider, especially at the top end.

On Climate Models, the Case For Living with Uncertainties By Fred Pearce


Well, yeah, that is greater uncertainty. But it's also worse! They tell us if Earth warms over 2C we can expect very serious consequences. more here

Pearce concludes

We are all — authors and readers of IPCC reports alike — going to have to get used to greater caution in IPCC reports and greater uncertainty in imagining exactly how climate change will play out. This is probably healthy. It is certainly more honest. But it in no way undermines the case that we are already observing ample evidence that the world is on the threshold of profound and potentially catastrophic warming. And it in no way undermines the urgent need to do something to halt the forces behind the warming..

More honest? Is he saying the IPCC has been dishonest? At what point does one become so cautious that the truth is lost?

I am having a hard time getting into the author's head. Reviews of his latest book The Coming Population Crash: and Our Planet's Surprising Future indicate he might be a bit of a Pollyanna. So his interpretation of uncertainty in current climate models is that climate change may not be so bad as the 2007 IPCC predicted.


Today's reality has already surpassed the 2007 IPCC, so his optimism is misplaced IMHO.