OMG II

Peak Everything

A renowned Australian research scientist says a study from researchers at MIT claiming the world could suffer from a "global economic collapse" and "precipitous population decline" if people continue to consume the world's resources at the current pace is still on track, nearly 40 years after it was first produced.

Next Great Depression? MIT study predicting ‘global economic collapse’ by 2030 still on track


I wonder if this is what is making most of the Republicans in this country (US) crazy. The Free Market isn't free. Mother Nature has been subsidizing it since the beginning. She's worn out, and in the next few decades civilization is going to pay the price

Michael Klare Interview - 25 October 2011.wmv

Paul Hawken, David Orr and Bill McKibben Take a Question from Dan Siegel

Climate Change Impact on Past Civilizations

Scenario for collapse

While a 2010 report by the US Joint Forces Command stated that by 2015 the global shortfall in oil production could be as great as 10 million barrels a day, the German study -- produced by the Bundeswehr Transformation Center, part of the German Ministry of Defence -- delved into much greater detail of the repercussions...

On an international level, the report warns that countries will become increasingly unable to assist other nations given the extent of their own internal problems. Thus, international institutions and relief infrastructure could seriously erode. The authors of the report warn there is a “false assumption [that] a phase of slow reduction in the amount of oil leads to an equally slow reduction in economic capacity”. They counter this assumption, stating a that a future of permanent oil decline in which the world no longer has a sufficient supply of oil to meet even rather suppressed demand could result in a quite rapid, negative chain of events. Once investors start losing confidence in any possibility of future growth, it would impact the market and potentially create a situation in which “the global economic system and every market-based economy collapse.”

The collapse of physical infrastructure, such as roads and bridges, could also result if the sum of the world’s oil is already invested in keeping people alive and protected from the elements. There are two sentences in the report that are particularly candid about the risks we face; they state: “A shrinking economy over an indeterminate period presents a highly unstable situation which inevitably leads to system collapse. The risks to security posed by such a development cannot even be estimated.” If the security risks cannot be estimated, then how can our governments prepare for the future? There is a stunning silence among many governments with respect to this issue. The fact that this German military report was leaked to the Internet is very telling. Governments do really not want us to know the gravity of the situation. But why? Perhaps they want to maintain their elective capacity and offer false hope? But then they keep selling us this elixir of perpetual growth when deep down they know that our living standards are going to get worse no matter what they or anybody else try.

The worsening oil crisis and views of a German military think tank

Emphasis mine

Since growth is not sustainable it seems to me this is inevitable

Teapot tempest

Mark Lynuas writes:

In my initial post on the myths of Easter Island I discussed the conclusions in archaeologists Carl Lipo and Terry Hunt’s new book ‘The Statues That Walked’, which demolished the idea – popularised by Jared Diamond in his book ‘Collapse’ – that Easter Island’s prehistoric society suffered some kind of ecologically-driven collapse which offers a parable for our modern-day environmental problems. Jared Diamond then sent over a robust response, which I published in full. Now Lipo and Hunt in turn respond to Diamond, which I am happy also to publish in full below.

The Easter Island ecocide never happened’ – response to Jared Diamond

Go there and read both.

This tempest in a teapot troubled me. It shows a lack of perspective in my opinion.

In 40 or 50 years people will look back on how narrowly we averted global collapse of our civilization by changing the way we see our environment. Earth is our life support system.

Or we will mourn the collapse caused by unrelenting consumption and pollution. Having exhausted our resources and pushed our climate into chaos, having suffered the resulting riots, famine, war... all that's left are pockets here and there, and they will not survive. In 10 thousand years, people like Carl Lipo and Terry Hunt will study the artifacts we left behind. Hope they find  copies of Jared's books.

Either way, the work of Jared Diamond will be relevant, prophetic even, while the work of Lipo and Hunt will satisfy academicians high in their ivory towers. There's room for both.

Stephen Petranek counts down to Armageddon

Paul Ehrlich on Surviving the Population Bomb: Sea Change Radio 5-17-11

My friends and I agree that collapse began with Reagan.

James Howard Kunstler: Sea Change Radio 7-26-11

Third Industrial Revolution

Rampant unemployment, rising food prices, a collapsed housing market, ballooning debt -- to Jeremy Rifkin, the American economist and president of the Foundation on Economic Trends, these are not simply symptoms of a temporary economic malaise. Rather, they are signs that the current world order -- long infused with and defined by fossil fuels -- is collapsing around us
*...*
The Third Industrial Revolution will move apace over the next several decades, probably peaking around 2050, and plateau in the second half of the 21st century. Already, in the shadow of its ascending bell curve, we can see a new economic era that will take us beyond the industrious mode that characterized the last two centuries of economic development and into a collaborative way of life. The metamorphosis from an industrial to a collaborative revolution represents one of the great turning points in economic history.

Jeremy Rifkin: The 'Democratization Of Energy' Will Change Everything

The The Third Industrial Revolution: How Lateral Power Is Transforming Energy, the Economy, and the World

We need a revolution for sure. I am afraid I do not share his optimism.

I feel we need a WWIII. The enemy: fossil fuels. There May Be Blood.

Everything is connected. The ongoing collapse may prevent a gentle transition away from fossil fuels. Of course the the deniers are blocking the exits of a crowded theater (Earth) that's really aflame.

Watch the full episode. See more Need To Know.

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This guy is often over the top, but he says lots of stuff worth thinking about.


Total BS about Fukushima in above video

The radioactive fallout from Japan’s Fukushima nuclear plant accident has spread as far as California waters, according to scientists from the University of California, Berkeley.

But although the level of radioactivity in the water was higher than normal, they said, it was still very low and not harmful to humans.

“The levels of fallout we have observed in San Francisco Bay area rain water pose[d] no health risk to the public,” wrote the study authors, led by Eric B. Norman of UC Berkeley’s Department of Nuclear Engineering.

Fukushima Fallout in California Waters: A Threat?

CLIMATE, WEALTH, & ENERGY

CLIMATE, WEALTH, & ENERGY University of Utah Physics Professor Dr. Tim Garrett explains why fossil-based wealth leads to both hyper-inflation and a ruined climate. From peer-reviewed paper in Journal "Climatic Change". Only a sudden economic collapse could save us from 5 degrees Celsius global temperature rise by 2100. And we'll get over 100% inflation. One of the most important interviews of the year. From Radio Ecoshock 101119 - 24 minutes.

Listen here at Radio Ecoshock

Jared Diamond on why societies collapse

Watch it again and again. This is from 2003.

Six Easy Steps to Avert the Collapse of Civilization

UBC Ecologist Bill Rees

Part 1 of 8
HT commenter Bob Lang over at Climate Progress

I tune into Climate Progress several times a day and read all the comments there. A fabulous fabulous resource.

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It's up to us.
What will the future look like? (UBC Prof. Rees)

Home

Can't embed... see the whole thing here:
Home

We are living in exceptional times. Scientists tell us that we have 10 years to change the way we live, avert the depletion of natural resources and the catastrophic evolution of the Earth's climate.

The stakes are high for us and our children. Everyone should take part in the effort, and HOME has been conceived to take a message of mobilization out to every human being.

For this purpose, HOME needs to be free. A patron, the PPR Group, made this possible. EuropaCorp, the distributor, also pledged not to make any profit because Home is a non-profit film.

HOME has been made for you : share it! And act for the planet.

Yann Arthus-Bertrand

HOME official website
http://www.home-2009.com

PPR is proud to support HOME
http://www.ppr.com

HOME is a carbon offset movie
http://www.actioncarbone.org

HT Bizarrobrain at Think Progress

Odd and worse

American companies send jobs overseas, and lay off domestic workers and then wonder why nobody has any money to buy their goods and services.

Money marketers are willing to put the global economy at risk for short term profits in their pockets.

Gas utilities shirk their duty to notify folks where their pipelines are, and save money by failing to maintain their lines. They are willing to let people die to save a dime.

World leaders are willing to sacrifice civilization for political reasons.

Fox news is willing to deceive their viewers about almost everything to make a dime.

Scientists are waffling about the fact that, since the tundra is melting, we have little hope of saving the world unless we start aggressively pulling methane and carbon out of the air. We don't know how to do that yet.

Some people are willing to be seen driving Hummers.

The Coming Collapse of the Middle Class

The vernerable Elizabeth Warren

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Not sure it's that bad

But this site, this man, and these ideas are definitly provocative!
collapsenet.com




HALLOWEEN AND THE ELECTION: WHAT'S THE DIFFERENCE? from CollapseNet.com on Vimeo.


You know, if it is this bad, I think more of us will seek refuge in sustainable cities, built by the brilliant and foresighted, not reverting to the olden days.

If you have Netflix, watch Collapse, it's riveting!

Crash Course

Our debt markets assume that the future will be (much) larger than the present.

Crash Course Lesson 12


This is very interesting and apropos to this blog. I listened to lessons 1 through 12, but I think readers will be able to get what this guy is saying without spending the time learning some of the details... so start with 12 and see how it goes.

This guy's predictions have not come to pass. He is, never the less, correct that something's gotta give, and it will likely occur in the next 20 years.

HT The Oil Drum
and The End of the World (as We Know It) Is Nigh

And this is worth reposting